27th
Why Obama Supporters Felt He Lost The Debate
I was pretty surprised to see the divergence between the pundit class and the first opinion polls on the subject of last night’s debate. We’ll see how it plays out, but let’s assume for a second that by-and-large, undecided viewers leaned towards Obama. So why did his friends on MSNBC and the blogs think he lost?
It’s because Obama supporters have convinced themselves that really they’re going to lose this thing in the end. Something will happen. He’ll slip up. Someone will catch him praying towards Mecca. Or maybe Michelle Obama’s mythical “whitey” speech will hit YouTube on the Saturday before the election. Or maybe at the last second, white voters will realize that they just want boring and steady and white. The point is, I think that deep down, most Obama supporters think he’ll blow it somehow. Maybe not most, but many. After Gore’s heartbreak and the awful Kerry campaign (against the really awful Bush), Democrats just know the game is stacked against them.
So they saw last night’s debate through that fatalistic lens.
Me: I don’t really have a horse in this race (other than that I dislike McCain) but by all accounts it looks like he’s going to win. He’s got a clear lead in the polls and he’s obviously expanded the Democratic map (competitive races in states like New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, Indiana and even North Caroline)
The dynamics of this campaign are clearly different than in 2000 and in 2004. In both of those elections, the Democratic candidate had leads now and again, but only for brief periods — when things normalized, Bush was always up 2-3 points in the polls. This time it’s the opposite. McCain has lead, and he may at some point lead again (perhaps as early as this weekend), but every time things get back to “normal” Obama finds himself up by a few points. I feel like that should hearten his supporters, though I don’t think it has — they still believe deep down that he’ll lose.
