Joseph Weisenthal

peterfeld: Miley Cyrus, “You’re Gonna Make Me Lonesome When You...

Wed, 08 Feb 2012 19:08:45 -0500

Miley Cyrus, “You’re Gonna Make Me Lonesome When You Go.” That’s when the taxi man turned on the radio and a Bob Dylan song was on.

Awesome.

Goldman Basically Buries NGDP Targeting

Sun, 30 Oct 2011 14:54:24 -0400

“Of the devices that may be used to buttress the commitment to a new target, several—fiscal policy most obviously, but in the Fed’s case any expansion of the kinds of assets being purchased—would need legislative approval even if the target itself did not.” — Dominic Wilson, Jan Hatzius and Sven Jari Stehn

Nomura On The Import Prices Data

Tue, 13 Sep 2011 17:15:36 -0400

Some interesting commentary on the basically in-line data from this morning…

——-

Import prices declined by 0.4% in August (+13.0% y-o-y), in line with Nomura expectations, but less than consensus (-0.8%). Two volatile headline price categories, petroleum (-2.1%) and food (-0.8%), were responsible for the decline in August. Barring the effect of a lower petrol price, non-petroleum prices increased by 0.3%, bringing them to their fastest year-over-year pace (5.5%) since September 2008. Elsewhere, industrial supplies (affected by lower petrol prices) declined by 0.9%. Import prices for consumer goods excluding autos increased by 0.3% in August and were up 2.0% y-o-y. In a recent article, New York Federal Reserve Bank economists found that “U.S. import prices for consumer goods shipped from China have been rising rapidly in recent quarters—by 7 percent between 2010:Q2 and 2011:Q1”. Export prices increased by 0.5% in August with a large contribution from sharply higher food prices (+3.4%) and a rebound in industrial supplies (+0.4%). We expect producer prices, which are the next measure in the inflation pipeline, to increase by 0.5% in August with core PPI increasing by 0.4%.

3 Short-Term Recommended Currency Trades From Goldman Sachs

Tue, 13 Sep 2011 17:12:58 -0400

This morning, Goldman put out these three currency trades

—————

The following trading ideas from the Global Markets Group reflect shorter-term views, which may differ from the longer-term ‘structural’ positions included in our ‘Top Trades’ list further below.

In FX:

1) Close long EUR/TRY, opened at 2.1620 on 9 February 2011, after closing below the trailing stop for a potential return of 9%.

2) Stay long EUR/$, opened at 1.4085 on 18 March 2011, with a target of 1.50 and a stop on a close below 1.35, now at 1.3611.

3) Stay short USD against a basket of NZD, RUB, SEK, KRW, MYR and CLP, opened at 100 on 10 August 2011, with a target of 105 and a stop on a close below 98, now at 98.3.

BREAKING: DOJ In Criminal Of eBay Employees

Tue, 13 Sep 2011 17:10:52 -0400

Reuters bombshell.

FUTURES DRIFTING LOWER AFTER HOURS

Tue, 13 Sep 2011 17:08:59 -0400

Just modestly at this point, but a bit of a slide after two wild up-days.

Why The Rumored Brazil Bailout Of The Eurozone Is Outrageous

Tue, 13 Sep 2011 17:04:00 -0400

Amid a rumor-filled day, one that stood was the chatter about the BRICS nations possibly working together to bail out Europe.

The rumors seemed to be emanating out of the Brazil camp, but there were also rumors relating to China and Russia, so maybe that’s not that important.

Regardless, the whole thing is scandalous and absurd because, despite the European sovereign debt mess, Europe is actually very rich, and Brazil and China and Russia and South Africa are very poor.

Brazil, for example, is 71st on GDP per capita. China is 94

The only reason they’re in a position to bail out Europe is because Europe has a screwed up economic system, where countries don’t control their own currencies, and because we’re a slave to accounting and the idea of central bank credibility, preventing the ECB from going whole-hog on the monetization front.

So because of totally contrived institutions — these dumb pseudo countries that don’t have their own currencies — and a silly belief in numbers, we’re getting this situation where the poor most pony up to bail out the rich.

Outrage.

STOCKS MAKE GIGANTIC COMEBACK ON RIDICULOUS DAY OF NEWS: Here's What You Need To Know

Tue, 13 Sep 2011 16:39:48 -0400

What a ridiculous day.

But first, the scoreboard:

Dow: +44.73
NASDAQ: +37.06
S&P 500: +10.60

And now, the top stories:

Yesterday was wild, as markets saw gigantic Europe-selling in the morning, followed by a huge comeback. Today was similar, except there were tons more headlines, and the entire seesaw took place before the market even opened.

Things were briefly positive when the opening bell rang in Europe, as markets raced to catch up with yesterday’s big rally. But things collapsed really quickly, as markets keyed off of a controversial column in the Wall Street Journal, citing an anonymous BNP Paribas executive saying that the bank had run out of dollar-funding options. French bank stocks, which have already been getting slammed on Greece fears/downgrade rumors got crushed for the second day in a row. BNP Paribas fell over 10% at one point. Not long after the article came out, the company came out and said it was still able to access dollar funding, and that put a floor on the market, which rebounded.

Then in the early going, a rumor came via Reuters that Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel were going to give a press conference on some matter related to Greece. One report even indicated that they were going to announce some sort of action. Stocks surged on that, moving from violently negative to significantly higher. And then not long after that, the rumor was denied! There would be no Merkel/Sarkozy press conference, just the possibility that Sarkozy might make some comments to the press later in the day — certainly falling short fo any real action.

But that wasn’t it for European headlines. Later in the day it was reported (and confirmed!) that on Wednesday Merkel, Sarkozy, and Papandreou would hold an emergency call. It’s not clear whether that’s really good or bad, but at least it’s definitely happening. In the early afternoon, there was a report about how Geithner would urge the Germans to expand the EFSF, but then later in the day that was denied. And finally, there was a rumor about how the Dutch Finance Minister had called a Greek default inevitable, but then that was denied, with the Dutch claiming that all they were doing was exploring the various options.

Oh, and also, there are rumors about a bailout of Europe from the BRICs (possibly in coordination with each other!), but who knows. And remember that rumor from yesterday about China buying Italian bonds. Well it turns out that the only talks have been about China buying Italian industrial assets, not bonds.

In terms of domestic news, it was mercifully pretty quiet. Shares of Best Buy got slammed to the tune of 6.3% after reporting bad earnings. There continued to be more jousting on the matter of the President’s jobs bill, with Republicans getting a bit more aggressive in their opposition. Also: Late in the day, Harry Reid talked about introducing a new anti-China currency bill in the Senate, and that briefly seemed to rattle equities, though ultimately not for very long.

In the end: We got a big rally, and are set up for more furious days ahead, with gigantic uncertainty.

Meanwhile, for the best reading of the day, Check out Citi’s WIllem Buiter on what happens if Greece leaves the Euro >

Drinks tonight

Fri, 02 Sep 2011 14:00:41 -0400

I’m having a big Chinese feast next Thursday (details here), but tonight (9/2/11) is my actual birthday.

So I’m gonna do the cliche thing and get drinks at Tom & Jerry’s at 8 tonight.

Y’all should come. I promise to engage in non-stop talk about the economy, the debt, the fallacy of the 90% debt-to-GDP ration, and the deleveraging cycle. Will be very fun.

YOU'RE INVITED! Joe's 31st Birthday Chinese Food Feast

Thu, 25 Aug 2011 19:32:11 -0400

Dear everyone,

I’m turning 31*, and I would be thrilled if you would join me to eat a monster Chinese feast at my favorite restaurant in the city: The Grand Sichuan on Canal Street at 7:00 PM on September 8th (a Thursday).

The idea is this: We’ll pack the place to the gills, and then order a gigantic variety of dishes on the menu so we can try everything.

Because I want to try so many different dishes, you should come even if I barely know you, or you don’t live in NYC, or you don’t like me and don’t want to talk to me (very plausible, and totally fine).

Afterwords, we’ll go Karaokeing for the rest of the night until around 4:00 AM at which point I’ll just head to my office and start covering the early going in the European markets.

Anyway, we did this last year, and it was awesome, and I want this year to be 10 times better.

Bring anyone you want, or anyone I’ve forgotten or whatever.

Joe

*You may not think 31 is a big milestone, but I like prime numbers, and I won’t be a prime again until 37.

Why The NYT Is Wrong About Its "Death Of Blogs" Story

Sun, 20 Feb 2011 19:24:23 -0500

TKTKTKTKTKTKTKT.

(Will link and flesh out argument once the article is live on NYT.com,)

2011 New Year's Resolutions

Sun, 02 Jan 2011 15:17:00 -0500

God, is there anything more trite than being anti-New Year’s resolutions? Being anti-prediction comes in a close second.

If nothing else, resolutions make for a good way of measuring your frame of mind at a given time. For example, for 2009 I resolved to read all of Human Action. I didn’t do it, but as a reflection of where my mind was at in late 2008 — during the worst of the financial crisis — it makes for an interesting mile-marker.

So, blah blah blah, here are my resolutions:

See the movie Country Strong.
Get washboard abs.
Start writing music again. Write, perhaps, a whole country album or a gospel album.
Stay better in touch with family. Call Mother, father, and sister more regularly.
Unplug from the internet/phone more frequently when I’m at home.
Get out and meet people more and drink with people more like actual reporters do
Play more poker, and perhaps learn a new game like Go or Backgammon.
Crank up the effort on hygiene and attire a notch. More frequently be at the office wearing a shirt that’d be appropriate for going on TV or meeting semi-serious people. Shave more.
Cook more at home, and eat out less. Specifically learn to cook some more basic meals, like, say, a pork roast.
Eat more Korean food (big one!).
Discover some more Chinese restaurants in Chinatown and in Queens.
Get into more fights on the internet.
Reorganize finances. Start trading currencies because everyone else is doing it and it looks like a lot of fun.

We Have Some News!

Fri, 19 Nov 2010 11:20:51 -0500

We Have Some News!:

fashism:

Fashism, a social shopping site and mobile application, has gained a following for letting its users get instantaneous feedback from fellow fashionistas on ensembles and clothing items they want to purchase.

On Friday, the New York-based company announced it came into a little cash to help fuel the company. Fashism, which has been self-funded until now, raised around $1 million in a Series A round of venture financing.

For the funding, however, the company sought out investors beyond the traditional financier circuit.

Ashton Kutcher, a well-known actor and former model who has gained credibility in the technology community for his social media mastery and keen investments, led the round for the start-up.

His wife, actress Demi Moore along with fashion critic and Project Runway judge Nina Garcia, also participated. Highline Venture Partners and SV Angel, managed by noted Silicon Valley investor Ron Conway, also contributed to the funding.

We are totally honored and thrilled to have not only a great group of investors, but a kick-ass team and community full of Fashists! Thanks to everyone for all the support!

Fuck yeah!

fashism: The Fashism iPhone app is now available in the iTunes...

Mon, 30 Aug 2010 11:22:28 -0400

fashism:

The Fashism iPhone app is now available in the iTunes store!

* Vote on the latest looks right from your phone

* Upload your look and get instant feedback on the go

Invite To My 30th Birthday/Chinese Food/Karaoke

Thu, 26 Aug 2010 22:37:39 -0400

(This invite I posted on Facebook, but since my goal is to have a party big enough where we order everything on the menu, I’m trying to go multi-platform. Besides, I have plenty of friends (or quasi-friends, anyway) who I’m not Facebook friends with. Just email me if you’re gonna come. Seriously, show up.)

When: September 2, 2010. 7:00 7 PM ET

Where: Grand Sichuan on Canal St.

What: I’m not inclined to throw a huge party for myself, but I am inclined to eat Chinese food at any opportunity I get, and I only turn 30 once, so… I’m trying to get everyone to come eat Chinese food with me. Ideally, we’ll order like a million things off the menu and try everything, and it’ll rule.

And then afterwords we’ll go Karaoking somewhere, and I’ll do some Social Distortion and Cheap Trick and maybe some Hank Williams. (And you can do whatever you want).

And then when it’s all over I’ll just head to my office and start cranking on the early market stuff. (That’s how I roll)

If you’re not on the list, don’t worry, come anyway (your omission was an accident).

And if you are on the invite list, and we’re not actually that good friends, don’t be weirded out or anything. I’m taking a more-is-better approach.

Seriously, unless you’re on vacation you just gotta come, because it’s rare that I go out, and once I’m post-30, I’ll probably go out 1/10th as often, and I’ll seriously never see you. And I never see you as it is.

I’m taking the day off celebrating my 4th anniversary, but...

Thu, 26 Aug 2010 11:17:00 -0400

I’m taking the day off celebrating my 4th anniversary, but Brooke’s on the phone, so I’m playing a few games of online chess…

Anyway, I happened into this position, and I really like it, because it represents my favorite type of chess game, which is asymmetrical unbalanced.

By that I mean, both my opponent and I have very different types of advantages. He has a tiny material advantage (He has 2 rooks, 1 bishop vs. my 1 rook, 1 bishop, and 2 extra pawns), and in exchange I clearly have a better pawn position. His pawns are disconnected like “grandma’s teeth” whereas mine are nice and linked, and on E7 I have a passed pawn (which means that he has no pawn either directly in front of it, or on either of the files right next to it, potentially blocking it).

These types of asymmetrical games tend to be the most rambunctious and unpredictable, and I’ll try to get into them everytime if I can.

(FWIW, I ended up winning the game on time, though that passed pawn I mentioned earlier proved to be crucial later on, and would have given me the win sans-time constraints. As the great Aron Nimzowitsch once said, in what is arguably one of the greatest quotes of all time: “A passed pawn is a criminal which should be kept under lock and key. Mild measures, such as police surveillance, are not sufficient.”)

Me & the half pig-head I shared with Frommer at Fatty Cue...

Wed, 11 Aug 2010 07:42:00 -0400

Me & the half pig-head I shared with Frommer at Fatty Cue last night.

Second time I’ve had it. It really is as delicious as it looks.

More photos from Frommer here.

unsolicitedanalysis: Some really interesting analysis from Joe...

Mon, 02 Aug 2010 06:58:45 -0400

unsolicitedanalysis:

Some really interesting analysis from Joe Weisenthal

Thanks!

25 Things Every Man Should Be Able To Do

Sat, 24 Jul 2010 19:22:00 -0400

I really, really hate “50 things a man should be able to do” lists, and the latest one I’ve seen, which was posted at First Things is no exception.

Part of it, I admit, is that I can’t do any of these things. Well, I can do like 5. So either I’m totally inadequate as a man (possible) or the list is pointless.

It’s also annoying, because you figure that people who make these lists construct them in such a way that they can do all 50. Magic! Even on the First Things list, the author notes upfront that he did not include “know how to tie a bowtie,” which I’m guessing means he doesn’t know how to tie a bowtie.

Of course, I have my own ideas about what every man should be able to do. Of course I do. But I couldn’t think of 50 because really, no man in the world needs to know how to do 50 effin’ things! Not in this day of hyperspecialization, at least. To be honest, the average man probably needs to know how to do 3 or 4 things (tops!), but that’d be a pretty boring list.

So here’s 25 things, and I think it’s defensible as any other list out there. Seriously.

Know a few words in French, Spanish, and German, and know how to lightly sprinkle them into your speaking writing in a way that’s interesting, but not pretentious.
Know the Latin name for at least a few common fallacies (E.G: The post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy)
Know how to play the chords C Major, F Major, F Minor, and G Major on the guitar or piano.
Be able to figure out how to play any song using said four chords (seriously, it’s possible in like 99% of all songs).
Be able to quickly learn any basic online publishing CMS.
Know at least 5 moves of theory in a few basic chess openings (The Ruy Lopez, The Sicilian [Dragon and Najdorf variations], and the Queens gambit [declined and accepted!])
Once the opening is done, know some VERY basic chess theory (trade off your bishops in closed games, your knights in open games, dominate the center, don’t let your opponent have a passed pawn, protect your king, and get your rooks onto open files).
Know how to multiply any 2-digit number by 11.
Instantly be able to say whether a number is a multiple of 3.
Instantly be able to say whether a number is a multiple of 9.
Be able to count to 700 by 7s in no more than twice the time it would take you to count to 100 by 1s.
Know how to tie a tie using a YouTube instructional video.
Have at least one poem memorized, even if it’s just the old classic “Carnation milk is the best in the land; Here I sit with a can in my hand. No tits to pull, no hay to pitch, You just punch a hole in the son of a bitch.”
Be able to come up with — regardless of the economy — a plausible scenario for a recession in the next 6 months.
Be able to come up with — again, regardless of the current situation — a plausible optimistic economic scenario in the next year.
Be able to learn about an issue and form an opinion on it within 5 minutes.
Feel comfortable changing one’s mind at any moment, without feeling embarrassed or self-conscious.
Eat exotic animal innards without a moment of hesitation.
Withstand really spicy food.
Be able to skip dessert while everyone is clearly enjoying themselves around you.
Be able to go for at least two weeks, with just 5 hours of sleep each night.
Enjoy sitting through religious services, even when they’re not of your own faith.
Know a few obscure facts about every state/major city in America, so that you have something to say when you meet people from said places.
Know a little bit about Austrian and Keynesian business cycle theory. Just a little.
Be able to cook steak & eggs and get the timing roughly right.

Fashism was on the early show this morning, and you can watch...

Tue, 20 Jul 2010 09:34:40 -0400

Fashism was on the early show this morning, and you can watch the video here.

But what I liked best was “The Rock Shot” seen above.